Macrobiotic Life

Few interesting informations around the agricultural topic.

But before them, let me show you one eye-opening fact:
In the place of 1 combain-harvester, you would need 120-300 people (using no oil powered machinery), fully engaged from the beginning of harvest season till Christmas.
The combain is probably the number one invention that caused a rapid human multiplication and massive shift from agricultural occupations.

John Michael Greer posted at his blog:

The productive potential of intensive gardening, especially under emergency conditions, should not be underestimated. A team of researchers at pioneering organic-gardening group Ecology Action found, on the basis of extensive tests, that it’s possible to feed one person year round on a spare but adequate vegetarian diet off less than 1000 square feet of intensively gardened soil. (The details are in David Duhon’s book, listed in the resource section.) In the more troubled parts of the future ahead of us, some of us may have to do just that; a great many more of us will need to be able to garden in order to pad out potential irregularities in a food supply that’s desperately vulnerable, over the short term, to fluctuations in the price and availability of fertilizer feedstocks and fossil fuels. The victory gardens of past wars are likely to be a useful template for the survival gardens of the deindustrial future.

I have read reaction to this theory from one very experienced farmer and he thinks, that the statement is right, but only if you are talking about the supplemental food production (vegetables, herbs). For the full scale food sustainability, read this:

Oldfarmecmac wrote:

… If it should become necessary,any reasonably accomplished gardener living in the more temperate parts of the US where the soil is decent and rainfall is adequate can produce most or all of the food necessary for herself and her immediate family,given enough land and sufficient time.The amount of land needed might be as little as one quarter to one half acre per person in the deep south where double cropping and even triple cropping may be practical,but such high yields are very much the exception rather than the rule,and can only be accomplished by very proficient farmers devoting very long hours to very small acreages.Chinese and Korean subsistence farmers in thier best farming areas are known to obtain even higher yields on a regular basis,but they are the 6 under par pros and work more or less continually at feeding themselves.You will need several times as much land in less favored areas.Our personal rough last ditch plan on our place here in the Blue Ridge mountians is two acres or so per person in field crops and fruit trees,which will provide us a little excess production for use as chicken feed and for sale,as well as a stored carry over safety cushion.
The more land you have, the more options you have in terms of varieties,crop rotations, fallow periods,cover crops, field manures,etc.More land also means that you can use less labor intensive techniques and get the same yields with fewer hours of labor.This will probably be a critical consideration for most people.In our case we will need to spend considerable amounts of time gathering firewood and other chores not directly related to food production. …

Oldfarmecmac:

…It is extremely unlikely that you can support yourself in Maine on a half acre.your twenty acres would probably be enough for a family of four or five if at least ten acres are reasonably level,cleared land with good soil.
You simply cannot believe how many things will go wrong until you are on the land and you need huge safety margins to protect yourself.

Peaceful scenario of the peak oil crisis:

The only thing we need to transition to is a zero-growth economy, which is going to be forced upon us. Peak oil does not mean the collapse of modern agriculture, however, and population die-off. This mantra among peak oil theorists is flawed. Bear with me here. Here’s why:

Peak oil destroys oil demand. When the price gets too high non-essential industries collapse first (airlines, car manufacturers, etc.) We’ve seen what happens then. The price of oil drops. It starts rising again as there’s some economic recovery, but eventually the price gets too high again and more industries collapse. Each collapse make the subsequent recovery smaller. It’s a bumpy down slope.

But agriculture won’t collapse during these high price peaks, because people need to eat. They will spend their last dollar on food. They will stop flying. They will stop buying new cars. But they can’t stop eating. So even if food prices rise during these brief oil-price peaks, agriculture won’t collapse. Remember also that the world food crises in many countries in 2008 was not due to the rising cost of oil (or natural gas) needed to produce food. Those amounts are marginal. Rather, it was the result of biofuels diverting cropland, and the UN and other world organizations woke up to that danger. It’s doubtful that will happen again on the scale it did in 2008. It’s doubtful economic recovery will ever increase enough to produce oil prices that high again, making biofuels competitive. Remember demand destruction REDUCES oil prices. Peak oil will over time REDUCE oil prices by destroying demand. This is such an important point.

Some important stats:

All farm machinery combined (tractors, combines, etc.) uses less than 1% of world oil consumption.
Producing nitrogen fertilizer uses less than 5% of world natural gas consumption.

As long as supply remains greater than demand and the price remains low (which is virtually assured because peak oil = industrial collapse) there will be plenty of oil and natural gas around for agriculture for a very, very long time. Even the transportation of food, which clearly uses more oil than farm machinery, will not be affected by oil depletion for these same reasons. Transporting furniture around the world from IKEA might slow down, but nobody is going to stop buying food.

Only when people are completely broke without a penny to their name will they stop buying food. But when this happens the government starts buying it for them, because otherwise the result is food riots, and that is bad for the upper classes as well.

Hence there is no imperative to localize food production. Most locations around the world can’t live on locally produced food anyway. Most States in the US are net food importers. Most countries are also.

The agriculture of the future, like agriculture in any thickly populated society with few energy resources, will thus use land intensively rather than extensively, rely on human labor with hand tools rather than more energy-intensive methods, and produce bulk vegetable crops and relatively modest amounts of animal protein; the agricultural systems of medieval China and Japan, chronicled by F.H. King in Farmers of Forty Centuries, are as good a model as any. Such an agricultural system will not support seven billion people, but then neither will anything else, and a decline in population as malnutrition becomes common and public health collapses is a sure bet for the not too distant future.

The Archdruid Report – Riddles in the Dark

Worst drought in a millenium creates severe food shortages in China

Don’t think negatively about the future, but also, don’t stick your head in the sand. Maybe there’s something true on this text, maybe not. But be aware, that this can happen. It’s very probable. Maybe not in the next year, maybe yes. Who knows. But you can surely be better prepared. And stay positive, whatever happens. Even in the face of death (easy to say, I know)

If you read any economic, financial, or political analysis for 2010 that doesn’t mention the food shortage looming next year, throw it in the trash, as it is worthless. There is overwhelming, undeniable evidence that the world will run out of food next year. When this happens, the resulting triple digit food inflation will lead panicking central banks around the world to dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports, causing the collapse of the dollar, the treasury market, derivative markets, and the global financial system. The US will experience economic disintegration. 

Read more at *****2010 Food Crisis for Dummies*****

And where should you invest your money?
Here are the main tips from the article:

Invest in Physical gold
Invest in agriculture sector
Invest In commodity producers
Invest in service sector of emerging economies
Invest in the debt of stable currencies

Read more at *****2010 Food Crisis for Dummies*****

Because I have still money in the US stock broker, I have bought stocks of the gold related company IAG, which has upward long time trend and now is undergoing temporary selloff – my entry price is 15.14.