Posts Tagged ‘future’

Peak Oil collapse transition scenario

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010

Peaceful scenario of the peak oil crisis:

The only thing we need to transition to is a zero-growth economy, which is going to be forced upon us. Peak oil does not mean the collapse of modern agriculture, however, and population die-off. This mantra among peak oil theorists is flawed. Bear with me here. Here’s why:

Peak oil destroys oil demand. When the price gets too high non-essential industries collapse first (airlines, car manufacturers, etc.) We’ve seen what happens then. The price of oil drops. It starts rising again as there’s some economic recovery, but eventually the price gets too high again and more industries collapse. Each collapse make the subsequent recovery smaller. It’s a bumpy down slope.

But agriculture won’t collapse during these high price peaks, because people need to eat. They will spend their last dollar on food. They will stop flying. They will stop buying new cars. But they can’t stop eating. So even if food prices rise during these brief oil-price peaks, agriculture won’t collapse. Remember also that the world food crises in many countries in 2008 was not due to the rising cost of oil (or natural gas) needed to produce food. Those amounts are marginal. Rather, it was the result of biofuels diverting cropland, and the UN and other world organizations woke up to that danger. It’s doubtful that will happen again on the scale it did in 2008. It’s doubtful economic recovery will ever increase enough to produce oil prices that high again, making biofuels competitive. Remember demand destruction REDUCES oil prices. Peak oil will over time REDUCE oil prices by destroying demand. This is such an important point.

Some important stats:

All farm machinery combined (tractors, combines, etc.) uses less than 1% of world oil consumption.
Producing nitrogen fertilizer uses less than 5% of world natural gas consumption.

As long as supply remains greater than demand and the price remains low (which is virtually assured because peak oil = industrial collapse) there will be plenty of oil and natural gas around for agriculture for a very, very long time. Even the transportation of food, which clearly uses more oil than farm machinery, will not be affected by oil depletion for these same reasons. Transporting furniture around the world from IKEA might slow down, but nobody is going to stop buying food.

Only when people are completely broke without a penny to their name will they stop buying food. But when this happens the government starts buying it for them, because otherwise the result is food riots, and that is bad for the upper classes as well.

Hence there is no imperative to localize food production. Most locations around the world can’t live on locally produced food anyway. Most States in the US are net food importers. Most countries are also.

Collapse scenarios and human behavior

Sunday, April 4th, 2010

The most negative scenarios come about when you study actual human behavior. The reason societies collapse is because humans evolved to seek advantage. They do not cooperate for the common good. That’s why all these suggestions for one-child families, etc. just get ignored.

Here is a quote from THERMO/GENE COLLISION: On Human Nature, Energy, and Collapse

FALLING NET ENERGY, OVERPOPULATION, AND COLLAPSE
The “collapse” of a country is caused by “too many people competing for too few resources”[16]. When a country can not supply enough resources to satisfy its members, that country becomes unstable and subject to fundamental change.

The human mind serves “fitness” – not “truth.” Since every individual is programmed to pursue personal fitness and lie about intentions, no civilization has ever been able to convince its members to cooperate enough to survive the depletion of the energy resources which gave it birth. When confronted with ever-declining resources, the preservation of social order requires more-and-more cooperation, but individuals are genetically programmed to reduce cooperation and seek advantage. This genetic legacy sets up a positive feedback loop: declining common resources cause individuals to reduce cooperation even more, which reduces common resources even faster, which leads to collapse even faster.

LIE, CHEAT, STEAL, RAPE, AND KILL
Society only directs our behavior when we perceive that it is able to reward or punish us. A “collapsed” society has no influence over our behavior. That’s why cultures disappear and people revert to more violent ways of life. Our present society began to collapse years ago because of the rising energy costs of energy.[17]

We include others in our society when we feel that it increases our fitness to do so, but we invent excuses to kick minorities out of our society when resources are insufficient. Allies can become enemies almost overnight. The collapse of Yugoslavia is an example of neighbor slaughtering neighbor.

Jay Hanson gets derided as a hopeless doomer but his research has been backed up by the likes of Garrett Hardin and Jared Diamond and books like Constant Battles: Why We Fight. If we want to avoid the worst we had better take human nature into consideration.

Our Future and the End of the Oil Age: Building Resilience in a Resource-Constrained World

Friday, April 2nd, 2010

Everything changes, but the Principles repeat!
Observe the history and her repeating periods – pinpoint the underlying Principle of each crisis and apply it to the contemporary civilization predicaments.
Historical books from Arnold Toynbee are perfect study material for this job – Kushi learned from them very much.

Here’s a peak oil informative material:

The Archdruid Report – Riddles in the Dark

Thursday, April 1st, 2010

The agriculture of the future, like agriculture in any thickly populated society with few energy resources, will thus use land intensively rather than extensively, rely on human labor with hand tools rather than more energy-intensive methods, and produce bulk vegetable crops and relatively modest amounts of animal protein; the agricultural systems of medieval China and Japan, chronicled by F.H. King in Farmers of Forty Centuries, are as good a model as any. Such an agricultural system will not support seven billion people, but then neither will anything else, and a decline in population as malnutrition becomes common and public health collapses is a sure bet for the not too distant future.

The Archdruid Report – Riddles in the Dark

Worst drought in a millenium creates severe food shortages in China

The Archdruid Reports – Energy Future

Thursday, March 11th, 2010

Awesome articles are being delivered from The Archdruid Report wonderland. Each week I am being enlightened so profoundly with Greer’s direct logic, leaving many complicated scientist’s articles behind. He makes, from seemingly complex topic, the easy job for understanding.
This is not a spiritual, high minded stroll, like many of my topics here, but the tangible reality that awaits us, no matter how good we meditate, no matter how good we eat, love or think positively.

It’s necessary to get knowledgeable about this basic topic of the humanity’s impending energetic future.
It’s not a dark, barbarian future – but big changes are going to happen soon.
And for me personally? I am looking forward to these changes for more than 2 years.
After I come through many of the depression phases, that followed each of my “conspiracy/future theories” explorations, I am more stronger, more happier, more optimistic than ever before.
Because, in the knowledge, in the acceptance of how things are, instead of believing in the collective illusions, there lies a big power – your mind shifts to the better reality model description and will not be surprised by the big society changes.

If you want to understand the topic, the basic logic behind the solar energy sources, read the latest report – Barbarism and Good Brandy. There’s perfectly explained, how is it impossible to switch from crude oil to bright solar future, without vast amount of compromises – this is what most, even the well educated, population doesn’t understand and you can get the knowledge from this article very fast.
But I strongly recommend reading this whole website from the beginning to end, or at least the preceding articles to this one.
There are many reasons, why even the nuclear power can’t save us – this is very controversy topic for many people.

David Icke – Things to come

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

Short summarizing message of the things to come before 2016 (according to David Icke).

From the video comments:

ABSOLUTELY RIGHT ON!

Anyone who tries violence, especially at this stage of the Revolution, IS ONLY AN AGENT PROVACATEUR.

They want us to react violently, en masse, to justify instituting Marshal Law.

The SECRET to our success, is to become completely independent of their System, off the Grid.

Don’t buy their toxic products; Boycott every Corporation; Peaceful Resistance to every Government; Non-Violent Non-Compliance with their? immoral laws;
Tune out their deceitful Media Agenda.

Endgame of America – Archdruid Report

Friday, February 5th, 2010

There’s a new Archdruid Report – Endgame – as usually, this is the top important material you should all read. If your english is not perfect (I need a lot of time with dictionary to read these Archdruid Reports, quite complicated english for me), at least read the last 3 paragraphs – they are the most practical and they are the conclusion.

Scattered among the statistical noise that makes up most of today’s news are data points that suggest to me that business as usual is quietly coming to an end around us, launching us into a new world for which very few of us have made any preparations at all.

If I read the signs correctly, America has finally reached the point where its economy is so deep into overshoot that catabolic collapse is beginning in earnest. If so, a great many of the things most of us in this country have treated as permanent fixtures are likely to go away over the years immediately before us, as the United States transforms itself into a Third World country.

…be well advised to stock their pantries, clear their debts, and get to know their neighbors
…to learn a practical skill or two

I may be wrong – and to be frank, I hope that I’m wrong – but it looks increasingly to me as though we’re in for a very rough time in the very near future.

The Archdruid Report

Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

I strongly recommend this blog – covering upcoming civilization problems, economy, finance, spirituality, illusion, peak oil – The Archdruid Report.

John Michael Greer

The Grand Archdruid of the Ancient Order of Druids in America (AODA), John Michael Greer has been active in the alternative spirituality movement for more than 25 years, and is the author of more than twenty books, including “The Druidry Handbook” (Weiser, 2006) and “The Long Descent: A User’s Guide to the End of the Industrial Age” (New Society, 2008). He lives in Cumberland, Maryland.

Twilight of Money

The consequence of all this pyramid building is that there are not enough goods and services on Earth to equal, at current prices, more than a small percentage of the face value of stocks, bonds, derivatives, and other fiscal exotica now in circulation.

Over the longer term, on the other hand, it’s safe to assume that the vast majority of paper assets now in circulation, whatever the currency in which they’re denominated, will lose essentially all their value.

How the trajectory will unfold is anyone’s guess, but the possibility that we may soon see sharp declines in the value of the dollar, and of dollar-denominated paper assets, probably should not be ignored, and cashing in abstract representations of wealth for things of more enduring value might well belong high on the list of sensible preparations for the future.

You can find a lot of yin/yang thinking in his writings.

political power begins with raw violence and evolves toward progressively more subtle means of suasion

And this is author’s practical advice what to do to prepare for the coming times:

My advice remains what it’s always been — concentrate on acquiring skills, and the basic tools needed to put them to work. My point is simply that hoarding cash, or other forms of paper wealth, may well become even less useful than hoarding concrete things.

Other interesting reactions from articles’ comments

My guess is that the total amount of energy extracted from fossil fuels in our age is equal to all the muscular energy exerted by human beings in all the ages leading up to ours. Remember that when a planeload of tourists fly from Los Angeles to Egypt to see the Great Pyramid, they use as much energy as it took to build the Great Pyramid in the first place.

I’ve chosen to participate in the abstract money games that structure life in late industrial society, as there are certain things I want to do and certain resources I value that would be out of reach if I was a hermit, or otherwise living outside the money economy. I don’t take those games seriously; I use them because for certain things, they’re the only game in town just now. Their raw absurdity is simply another detail.

It’s not necessary to stop using money to get out from under the spell that makes people think it’s the same thing as wealth; just treat it as a tool, and remember that its only value is the willingness of other people to take it in exchange.

There’s a great passage in one of Schumacher’s books about that moment of insight where one realizes one’s teachers don’t actually know what they’re talking about. That ought to happen much more often in economics classrooms than it does.

It’s a mistake to chalk up to conspiracy what can be explained by stupidity.

When an accountant discovers that the till doesn’t balance, she checks her figures, finds the error, and corrects it. When an economist discovers that the till doesn’t balance, he invents a theory to explain why it shouldn’t balance. There’s no question in my mind which of the two is the useful response.

Whatever is happening is right and perfect

Friday, October 30th, 2009

Never think negatively about anything. Sometimes things like Iluminaty, New World Order, vaccination, electronic chips, environmental threats create fear in us. I feared myself for one period of life, while watching/reading these informations. It’s good to be informed, but always transform everything to Love.

From non-duality perspective is all perfect like it is. There can be no peace without war. No day without night, no life without death, no cold without heat, no fear without courage etc. We dream about ever lasting Peace, Heaven on Earth, but is it possible from the duality point of view? Can there be only Peace in the Universe? How could the balance be maintained then? We would be living in one extreme, although in very pleasurable extreme. But this situation is not possible in the world of dualities. Dualities are always balancing each other. If there is no duality, there’s no world like this, all activity would cease.
So, enjoy whatever is – seek challenges and grow :-)

I can see one solution to the theory of Heaven on Earth. It’s very similar to macrobiotic principles. All we do in macrobiotic is to shift from taking too much extreme spectrum of energies. It doesn’t mean, we are taking only good ones, the healthy ones. There is no good without bad, no health without illness in the duality world. We cleverly shift to the more calm spectrum of these dualistic opposites, yet still enjoying the energy effects that the food creates on our body/mind system. We can live without extreme foods, extreme experiences, because we find pleasure in the more sublime, calm activities. It all happens naturally, no strong will is needed. Because we change from inside, the food change us to the more balanced, less extreme energetic condition. And we attract outside conditions according to our inner environment. We are more calm, more balanced inside, hence we attract these kinds of energies. And this all happens naturally, no need for strong mind control, suppressing our emotions, feelings, no need for strong control of our tastes.

This can happen to the future world also. We can shift to the more sublime, narrow range of energetic spectrum. It doesn’t mean, all problems, all negativity (as we perceive it) will cease. It means, that we will have less of the extreme negativities and extreme positivities. I am for this kind of World. I am for the less extreme smiling people, that are smiling artificially, after taking alcohol, drugs, a lot of white sugar. This would be compensated with the less extreme negativ people, angry people, feared, hatred, aggressive people. Give me less wars and less peace, instead of brutal killing and exaggerated loving care.

Because I have realized: the basic Universal frequency is sublime, calm Love&Peace song – OM.
When we will shift to the less extreme conditions – we will hear more of this basic Heavenly sound, all-penetrating Love frequency. But this Love is not artificial Love, it’s not mind constructed Love. It’s something that’s inside all of us, but we can’t hear it, because we are not tuned to this frequency. We are enjoying extreme foods, hence creating extreme inner environment and attracting extreme outside conditions.

The way outside, is to change your inner frequencies. Stop taking extremities in all your daily activities – food, tv/internet news, people, music, living environment etc. All are affecting your body/mind system. Be clever and start accepting more sublime energies. And your mind will start producing and attracting more sublime thoughts – love, joy, happiness, compassion, courage, bravery, enjoyment. With these thoughts in your mind, you can’t be unhappy, depressed, feeling bad. You are naturally in the Heaven here&now. Constantly. Even when natural bad things happen you will stay calm and happy inside – for example natural death is normal – you die because of old age, you die in peace, surrounded by loving friends, living fully to the last days. You don’t need to experience unnatural slow painful dying, war killing and similar – these kind of deaths are bringing you the big misery – but this is the price for living, “enjoying” the extremities of our duality World. We have created it by our daily conduct, we can stop it. Start with yourself and it will spread naturally.

Here’s an excerpt from talking of a Yogi master (sorry, don’t know which one):

Question: I can’t help thinking about the future of the world and worrying that it is going to destroy itself. What is the proper attitude?

Answer: Don’t buy into those who say it’s a dark time – it is so un-yogic. We will always have wars, depressions, turmoil. There is no duality – there is no future – unless we believe in it. How much energy do you want to put into tomorrow, into the future? It’s fantasy – it’s a lower-age belief system. There are no good times. There are no bad times. Whatever is happening is right and perfect. The yogi always asks, “What can I learn from this?” no matter what is happening. Detachment is going within. Go to love – and you will see that there you have nothing to do with war and peace. Environmental conditions or any other outside conditions, whether good or bad… take the attitude of St. Francis who said, “The weather is always nice, but in different ways.”

We’re only a breath away from going within. It’s so simple. But the mind makes it so complicated, so complex. The mind is always flickering. Learn to say “Ahh, what’s happening?” Get rid of the judgment. Ask, “What can I learn?” Take full responsibility – be a god!

But we all have an evil twin inside. It says, “It’s all a dream. Nothing really matters in this world. What’s the purpose? Why should I do anything?” If you listen to that evil twin, you will start feeling empty, depressed, and if you let it continue, you will start getting weak. You may find your spiritual life is not going well. What’s lacking? Positive action. It is very important to use positive action – it’s very easy for the evil twin to take charge. You must connect your dreams and aspirations with positive action. Even truth can become a negative affirmation without positive action. It is more important to do something, rather than wait around for something to happen.